mardi 2 mars 2010

Les Forestiers d'Amos




In a bit of an upset, Amos was sent packing in this year's playoffs by the Lac St-Louis Lions. The good news for scouts is that the Lions' prospects previously discussed here played pretty well. Biega was the stud we all expect him to be, Fournier was on top of his game, Matheson took his game to a new level, Zielonka was producing and even Eardley was chipping in.

The disappointing part was in not seeing Amos go a little further, because they have some pretty good prospects of their own. This team had some big bodies who could really skate, and yet, they just couldn't seem to seize control of the game. This is a situation that is becoming more and more common for opponents of the Lions as Lac St-Louis keeps on winning these types of games - which is completely to the Lions' credit.


At 16, Nicolas Dionne took his game to a whole new level this year, winning the league scoring championship, and believe me, he doesn't fly under the radar, you notice him! He's got a big frame with good wheels and some smooth hands. You look at him and he looks like a guy who would lead the league in scoring, he just has that many tools. Expect him to go early because:
A) He kept progressing all year
B) He can step in right away
There's no question that a team out there will be looking for some immediate help. I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up in Val d'Or, which would line him up with last year's #1 selection Olivier Archambault. The dammage both these '93 birthdays could do, in a way, would be very remisniscent of the Simon Gamache-Brandon Reid days, which would sit very well with their fanbase.

And speaking of duos, this would be a good chance to speak of two forward prospects who spent some time together on the same line, Dwayne Bradley-Tessier and Jéremy Carignan. Bradley is a centerman with some good wheels and size, but he just doesn't seem to have enough finish in him for a Top 6 spot (well, maybe at 19, but it'll take some time). I would project him more as a top end third liner, playing two-way hockey and chipping in every now and then. Carignan is somewhat the same, with less size but a bit better wheels. Carignan is more of a play maker and Bradley more of a finisher. In that regard, Bradley's style and contribution will most likely end up being that of a Mike Fisher type. I would expect that he'll get picked first of the two -think late second round, after a guy like Matheson- because of Bradley's size advanatage but that Carignan won't wait much longer after. I wouldn't even be surprised if they got picked up by the same team.

The final 15 year-old forward on the team is Pierre-Marc Rail, but he may go undrafted. He has good size but it's hard to project a role under which he can thrive at the next level. Rather than take him in the third and fourth round, I fear teams will be more inclined to grab 16 year-olds who can step in right away, which may be Rail's faith next year if he can have a solid season.

Also, one player with the Forestiers who will go pretty early -maybe even in the first round- is defenseman François Michaud... but what else would you expect in the year of the defenseman? A right handed blueliner (always hard to find), Michaud won't dazzle you with his offensive prowess, but he is a very mobile and steady defender. He also makes a good first pass, adding to his defensive value, he just doesn't have that 'quarterback' mentality with the puck. It wouldn't surprise me if it did end up growing a little bit out of him, in the same way it did for Dominic D'Amour when he played for Gatineau, but just like D'Amour, I wouldn't expect this side of him to come out until his last year's of junior hockey. But in the mean time, there is a team that will be getting a steady defenseman that could step into a line-up right away (maybe not a top 4 role, but still, he'll be in the line-up) and stay there as his role grows bigger and bigger over time. While some teams must be hoping to steal him in the second round because of the depth of defensemen in this draft, I feel that to get him, someone will have to step up because some team picking in the late stages of the first round will be all too happy to get a guy who can play right away as they rebuild.
And finally, I just have to show some love for two 16 year-olds. First, another defenseman, by the name Alex Bouthillette. It seems impossible to think that a defenseman of that size will go undrafted for the second straight year, but he may have to wait until the middle rounds because he remains a very raw prospect. Like most players who grow up a little faster, his skills are far from smooth and he'll need a little bit of time for his coordination to completely catch up to him, but he can contribute at both ends of the rink, so there's a team out there willing to grab him as a project type player. The reward could definitely be worth the risk at those stages of the draft.

The other '93 born player is goaltender Carl Hozjan, who truly had a great year. Sure he may be 16, but he outplayed Val d'Or drafted goalie Derek Fortier and that says something good about Hozjan, because Fortier is good goalie in his own right. Hozjan has some good size and mobility, and really shined at the Midget AAA Challenge. His playoff performance was just average, but he still did enough to get everyone's attention. He'll play junior hockey, no problem there, I just don't believe he'll be a top flight goalie though. But in a draft so weak in goaltenders, he'll be one of the first to be drafted, with the team selecting him hoping to build him up to 1/1-A level. Expect him to go in the middle of the draft, or just before for a team desperately looking for some help between the pipes.


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